May 30th, 2013 by

Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge

Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge

With the score tied up, the buzzer sounds, signaling the end of the third period, sending hockey fans from all over the globe into a scramble looking for a computer or smartphone. Social media overtime contests, such as ESPN resident puckhead John Buccigross#BucciOvertimeChallenge contest on Twitter continue to soar in popularity over the last few seasons. In the anxiety-ridden months of April, May and June, hockey fans from all over the world try to play the role of Nostradamus in predicting which National Hockey League player scores the game-winning goal in overtime.

After interacting with several individuals about their personal strategies of deciding an overtime winner, I wondered if there was a certain method, based off statistical analysis, that could narrow down the selection process.

Using the last three playoff seasons as our sample, we tracked time-on-ice and shots-on-goal totals for every player who’s tallied a game-winning in overtime since the 2010-11 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The majority of the people I spoke with mentioned players with special teams roles carried a significant amount of weight in their selection process, while a few others mentioned points accumulated during the current game as another factor.

Listed below is every overtime game-winning-goal recipient, broken out by TOI ranking by position, total shots on goal, points and special teams points and prior to the game-winner.

[table “” not found /]

2012

[table “” not found /]

 

2011

[table “” not found /]

Based off the past three seasons of data, it appears there’s really no correlations existing, but we can draw on probability. For example, players finishing in the top-four at their respective positions in TOI are responsible for 51% of game winners. In the shots on goal category, players firing three or four on goal are responsible for 48% of golden goals. However, 32% of overtime tallies came off the stick of players who fired two shots or less total in the game.

In special teams, only 19% resulted from players who tallied a special teams point earlier in the game. Looking at it on the larger scale, players who notched a point prior to the eventual GWG are responsible 43% of the time.

Due to the small sample, we’ll continue to track data from previous playoff seasons in hopes of making some sort of correlation. But one thing is for certain at this point: it’s anyones guess.

Share "Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge" via

No comments yet.

Leave a reply

More in Playoff Central
Oct 18, 13 hours ago

Rask-Bjork collision puts Bruins goaltending in limbo for time being

Just as Patrice Bergeron and David Backes are one step closer to returning, the Bruins may have been dealt another blow on the injury front. During Wednesday’s practice at Warrior Ice Arena, Tuukka Rask was helped off the ice by Zdeno Chara and…

Oct 17, 2 days ago

Bergeron, Backes inch closer to return as Bruins look to regroup

A rough 2-3 start to the season has left plenty of questions for the Boston Bruins. Some of those questions will be answered over time, others will have to wait. The Bruins are closer to getting some help, however. Both Patrice Bergeron (lower body) …

Oct 17, 2 days ago

Peter Cehlarik shouldering his way back Into Bruins mix

Upon returning from a shoulder injury early in the offseason, and missing nearly the entire training camp, Peter Cehlarik returned to practice on September 29 trying to make a late push to make the roster. Unfortunately, it ended up being a too littl…