May 30th, 2013 by

Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge

Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge

With the score tied up, the buzzer sounds, signaling the end of the third period, sending hockey fans from all over the globe into a scramble looking for a computer or smartphone. Social media overtime contests, such as ESPN resident puckhead John Buccigross#BucciOvertimeChallenge contest on Twitter continue to soar in popularity over the last few seasons. In the anxiety-ridden months of April, May and June, hockey fans from all over the world try to play the role of Nostradamus in predicting which National Hockey League player scores the game-winning goal in overtime.

After interacting with several individuals about their personal strategies of deciding an overtime winner, I wondered if there was a certain method, based off statistical analysis, that could narrow down the selection process.

Using the last three playoff seasons as our sample, we tracked time-on-ice and shots-on-goal totals for every player who’s tallied a game-winning in overtime since the 2010-11 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The majority of the people I spoke with mentioned players with special teams roles carried a significant amount of weight in their selection process, while a few others mentioned points accumulated during the current game as another factor.

Listed below is every overtime game-winning-goal recipient, broken out by TOI ranking by position, total shots on goal, points and special teams points and prior to the game-winner.

[table “” not found /]

2012

[table “” not found /]

 

2011

[table “” not found /]

Based off the past three seasons of data, it appears there’s really no correlations existing, but we can draw on probability. For example, players finishing in the top-four at their respective positions in TOI are responsible for 51% of game winners. In the shots on goal category, players firing three or four on goal are responsible for 48% of golden goals. However, 32% of overtime tallies came off the stick of players who fired two shots or less total in the game.

In special teams, only 19% resulted from players who tallied a special teams point earlier in the game. Looking at it on the larger scale, players who notched a point prior to the eventual GWG are responsible 43% of the time.

Due to the small sample, we’ll continue to track data from previous playoff seasons in hopes of making some sort of correlation. But one thing is for certain at this point: it’s anyones guess.

Share "Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge" via

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

More in Playoff Central
Sep 22, 17 hours ago

Position battle outlook: Bruins first line right wing

Throughout the week, we’ll be looking at the Bruins’ top position battles for the 2014-15 season. Today, in part one, we’ll look at the vacant spot at right wing on the Bruins first line. Stay tuned tomorrow as we outlook the third …

Sep 18, 4 days ago

Questions continue for B’s at State of the Bruins

The first day of training camp often brings several questions along with it, and it’s no different for the Boston Bruins. In addition to off-ice testing, the Black and Gold took questions from reporters as they began their preparation for the 2014-…

Sep 18, 5 days ago

Questions surround Bruins as training camp begins

As the Bruins kick off the 2014-15 season Thursday morning at TD Garden with their official first day of training camp, albeit off-ice testing, many questions surround the Presidents’ Trophy winning Bruins. From who replaces Jarome Iginla on the Br…