May 30th, 2013 by

Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge

Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge

With the score tied up, the buzzer sounds, signaling the end of the third period, sending hockey fans from all over the globe into a scramble looking for a computer or smartphone. Social media overtime contests, such as ESPN resident puckhead John Buccigross#BucciOvertimeChallenge contest on Twitter continue to soar in popularity over the last few seasons. In the anxiety-ridden months of April, May and June, hockey fans from all over the world try to play the role of Nostradamus in predicting which National Hockey League player scores the game-winning goal in overtime.

After interacting with several individuals about their personal strategies of deciding an overtime winner, I wondered if there was a certain method, based off statistical analysis, that could narrow down the selection process.

Using the last three playoff seasons as our sample, we tracked time-on-ice and shots-on-goal totals for every player who’s tallied a game-winning in overtime since the 2010-11 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The majority of the people I spoke with mentioned players with special teams roles carried a significant amount of weight in their selection process, while a few others mentioned points accumulated during the current game as another factor.

Listed below is every overtime game-winning-goal recipient, broken out by TOI ranking by position, total shots on goal, points and special teams points and prior to the game-winner.

[table “” not found /]

2012

[table “” not found /]

 

2011

[table “” not found /]

Based off the past three seasons of data, it appears there’s really no correlations existing, but we can draw on probability. For example, players finishing in the top-four at their respective positions in TOI are responsible for 51% of game winners. In the shots on goal category, players firing three or four on goal are responsible for 48% of golden goals. However, 32% of overtime tallies came off the stick of players who fired two shots or less total in the game.

In special teams, only 19% resulted from players who tallied a special teams point earlier in the game. Looking at it on the larger scale, players who notched a point prior to the eventual GWG are responsible 43% of the time.

Due to the small sample, we’ll continue to track data from previous playoff seasons in hopes of making some sort of correlation. But one thing is for certain at this point: it’s anyones guess.

Share "Deciphering the Buccigross Overtime Challenge" via

No comments yet.

Leave a reply

More in Playoff Central
Feb 12, 14 hours ago

What we learned: Bergeron puts Bruins on his back

Coming off their worst loss of the season Tuesday at TD Garden against old friend Milan Lucic and his Los Angeles Kings, the Bruins desperately needed a convincing win Thursday night in Winnipeg, the first of a season-high six straight on the road. A…

Feb 11, 1 day ago

Game Day Preview: Bruins at Jets

The Bruins are coming off their worst loss in a long time where they were completely embarrassed at home Tuesday night against the LA Kings, 9-2. Milan Lucic made a successful return to TD Garden with a goal and an assist in the beat down. The Bruins…

Feb 10, 3 days ago

What we learned: Bruins dismantled by stronger Kings

The Boston Bruins welcomed back Milan Lucic to TD Garden Tuesday night as they looked for two straight home wins for the first time since late November. They did not get their wish. Tuukka Rask was pulled after allowing five goals while the Los Ange…